A New Year Filled with Old Challenges
A well known English academic was once asked by a BBC radio reporter shortly after the 9/11 attacks how significant an event he thought this was, ' ask me in fifty years I'm a historian not a fortune teller' was his somewhat pithy response. So, taking account of that particular 'health warning' I will try to outline what 2014 will bring for the US and Obama for although it does involve a little work with my crystal ball the key challenges that face Uncle Sam this year, as they say 'all have history'.
Domestically, politically, the year will be dominated by the Mid Term elections as the Republicans look to take full advantage of the President's decreasing popularity in the country (54% disapproval rate) by increasing their hold in the House while trying to seize power in the Senate. All 435 seats in the House are being contested while 33 seats in the Senate and 38 state and territorial governorships are up for grabs. In response the Democrats will continue to try and remind voters as to the disarray amongst Republicans with at times, the unseemly tussle between the Tea Party activists and the more moderate conservatives. However, what is most striking about Obama's recent slide in the polls is that it is happening at a time when the US economy is recovering and unemployment is decreasing, this suggests at least two persuasive issues are in play. That the recent improvement in the nation's economy is not having such a significant or even handed effect on the nation, hence, the recent debate over increasing inequality in the United States. Secondly, that the President is no longer being judged on what he promises, but on what he achieves. In other words, the hope that Obama would induce positive change in American society is now wearing increasingly thin. Therefore, my best guess is that the republicans will make further gains in the House, but probably just fall short of taking control of the 'senior chamber', but I also sense that the President's often fractious relationship with 'the hill' will not be getting any easier regardless of the Congressional shake out in the November vote. Obama's often lofty management style that became more widely exposed during the recent healthcare computer fiasco continues to haunt him with his subsequent attempts to regain control of the political agenda looking increasingly clumsy. Crucially, the President seems to have lost confidence and momentum just at a time when he is looking to play out the final quarter of his political game - lame duck comes to mind, but as some more caustic commentators have observed, more like 'daffy duck'.
Overseas, the weather just as in the real world of climate change, looks increasingly extreme for the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon as the dominant systems continue to blow into the Middle East. This years Afghanistan withdrawal will leave a socio-political vacuum that will be quickly filled by the return of 'tribal rule' giving greater evidence to the already known narrative that this part of the world will not be organised or revitalised by western norms and that this particular conflict, which was a product of the American response to 9/11, has achieved just what? Moreover, the Syrian conflict that started 2013 as a fight against Assad and his particular 'chemical weapons of mass destruction', has witnessed a sea change as the headlines are no longer dominated by an oppressive dictator that is forcing huge numbers of civilian refugees into the Lebanon et al, but by al Qaeda rebel forces now spilling into nearby Iraq. This development is extremely worrying for several reasons. When Obama decided to withdraw the US military from Iraq they were already aware that they were leaving behind a political construct that was probably not robust enough to deal with the numerous domestic sectarian matters let alone any external pressures. Moreover, on withdrawal the US also left behind a number of military advisers and CIA operatives to keep the US government in the loop over any alarming future developments, the increasing and impending danger posed by the spill over of the Syrian conflict into Northern Iraq is indeed alarming. This fresh attempt by new younger leaders of radical Muslim groups to create an Islamic caliphate in this region that shows little regard of national borders has highlighted at best American foreign policy in the Middle East as being very confused at worst, a shambles. At present the State department is facing several ways at once in it attempts to navigate a clear path through the Middle Eastern maze. They wish to oust Assad from Syria because he is perceived as an oppressive dictator, however, as they are now increasingly aware he could be replaced by an even worse option. At the same time, the US is trying to patch up a political deal with Iran over nuclear policy while Tehran continues to be a key supporter of Assad and a sworn enemy of Israel. While Kerry continues to offer military hardware support to Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and his fight against the recent Syrian insurgents when it has been the Prime Minister's own increasingly oppressive approach to other groups within Iraq, that has helped fuel the increasing violence and instability that in turn has allowed radical Muslim groups to obtain a foothold in this 'failing state'.
So, as the US seems to be slowly pulling away from negative effects of the 2008 financial crisis - although the underlying issues have still not been dealt with - this uneven economic improvement is apparently not helping the President in his attempts to leave a lasting domestic legacy. Moreover, his lack of natural instinct over foreign affairs is also exposing his weakness in reconciling his declared values with harsh political realities, this is best illustrated by the continuing failure to close Guantanamo Bay. Maybe, as previously observed, the President's particular place in history will be determined not by what he has achieved domestically or internationally, but in what he stood for and 2014 will be the year that just confirms this.
Domestically, politically, the year will be dominated by the Mid Term elections as the Republicans look to take full advantage of the President's decreasing popularity in the country (54% disapproval rate) by increasing their hold in the House while trying to seize power in the Senate. All 435 seats in the House are being contested while 33 seats in the Senate and 38 state and territorial governorships are up for grabs. In response the Democrats will continue to try and remind voters as to the disarray amongst Republicans with at times, the unseemly tussle between the Tea Party activists and the more moderate conservatives. However, what is most striking about Obama's recent slide in the polls is that it is happening at a time when the US economy is recovering and unemployment is decreasing, this suggests at least two persuasive issues are in play. That the recent improvement in the nation's economy is not having such a significant or even handed effect on the nation, hence, the recent debate over increasing inequality in the United States. Secondly, that the President is no longer being judged on what he promises, but on what he achieves. In other words, the hope that Obama would induce positive change in American society is now wearing increasingly thin. Therefore, my best guess is that the republicans will make further gains in the House, but probably just fall short of taking control of the 'senior chamber', but I also sense that the President's often fractious relationship with 'the hill' will not be getting any easier regardless of the Congressional shake out in the November vote. Obama's often lofty management style that became more widely exposed during the recent healthcare computer fiasco continues to haunt him with his subsequent attempts to regain control of the political agenda looking increasingly clumsy. Crucially, the President seems to have lost confidence and momentum just at a time when he is looking to play out the final quarter of his political game - lame duck comes to mind, but as some more caustic commentators have observed, more like 'daffy duck'.
Overseas, the weather just as in the real world of climate change, looks increasingly extreme for the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon as the dominant systems continue to blow into the Middle East. This years Afghanistan withdrawal will leave a socio-political vacuum that will be quickly filled by the return of 'tribal rule' giving greater evidence to the already known narrative that this part of the world will not be organised or revitalised by western norms and that this particular conflict, which was a product of the American response to 9/11, has achieved just what? Moreover, the Syrian conflict that started 2013 as a fight against Assad and his particular 'chemical weapons of mass destruction', has witnessed a sea change as the headlines are no longer dominated by an oppressive dictator that is forcing huge numbers of civilian refugees into the Lebanon et al, but by al Qaeda rebel forces now spilling into nearby Iraq. This development is extremely worrying for several reasons. When Obama decided to withdraw the US military from Iraq they were already aware that they were leaving behind a political construct that was probably not robust enough to deal with the numerous domestic sectarian matters let alone any external pressures. Moreover, on withdrawal the US also left behind a number of military advisers and CIA operatives to keep the US government in the loop over any alarming future developments, the increasing and impending danger posed by the spill over of the Syrian conflict into Northern Iraq is indeed alarming. This fresh attempt by new younger leaders of radical Muslim groups to create an Islamic caliphate in this region that shows little regard of national borders has highlighted at best American foreign policy in the Middle East as being very confused at worst, a shambles. At present the State department is facing several ways at once in it attempts to navigate a clear path through the Middle Eastern maze. They wish to oust Assad from Syria because he is perceived as an oppressive dictator, however, as they are now increasingly aware he could be replaced by an even worse option. At the same time, the US is trying to patch up a political deal with Iran over nuclear policy while Tehran continues to be a key supporter of Assad and a sworn enemy of Israel. While Kerry continues to offer military hardware support to Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and his fight against the recent Syrian insurgents when it has been the Prime Minister's own increasingly oppressive approach to other groups within Iraq, that has helped fuel the increasing violence and instability that in turn has allowed radical Muslim groups to obtain a foothold in this 'failing state'.
So, as the US seems to be slowly pulling away from negative effects of the 2008 financial crisis - although the underlying issues have still not been dealt with - this uneven economic improvement is apparently not helping the President in his attempts to leave a lasting domestic legacy. Moreover, his lack of natural instinct over foreign affairs is also exposing his weakness in reconciling his declared values with harsh political realities, this is best illustrated by the continuing failure to close Guantanamo Bay. Maybe, as previously observed, the President's particular place in history will be determined not by what he has achieved domestically or internationally, but in what he stood for and 2014 will be the year that just confirms this.
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