As the political circus rolls into New Hampshire - the second performance on their nationwide tour - I'm already beginning to wonder whether this stopover really matters. But apparently it 'really' does, for Donald Trump it is an opportunity to regain the 'initiative' after his unexpected defeat by Ted Cruz in Iowa. Moreover, it is a another chance for Marco Rubio to confirm his 'credentials' as the establishment's favourite. Meanwhile Hilary Clinton who sort of won against Bernie Sanders in Iowa is now looking at 'damage limitation' having 'already priced into the market' the loss she is about to endure from the man from Vermont.
If you have no real idea what 'regaining the initiative', 'confirming his credentials', 'damage limitation and priced into the market' actually mean within the context of the US primaries do not worry your in good company but apparently I'm obliged to include these phrases in my introduction since it gives the allusion that I really understand what is going on and since virtually every media report in the US has already done so. However, I'm writing this introduction just before the vote is declared in the Granite State so just maybe all will become clear when I scribe the second part of this blog later today...
...The results are in and for once they reflect the predictions as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders win big. What does this mean? For the establishment within the two respective parties these are concerning results. Does this suggest that Trump will eventually arrive at the Republican Convention in the early summer with the necessary delegates to win the the nomination? Surely not! But his clear victory has placed serious doubts about the conventional view that someone like Rubio will claim the day, especially after the mauling he took from Christie, Bush and co in the latest TV debate. For Clinton the size of her loss is indeed unsettling since the last time she stood in a New Hampshire primary in 2008 she beat one Barack Obama. However, this is still early days in a process that will run through into July.
Moreover, in the Republican struggle the fight back can still come effectively from one of four opponents - Cruz, Rubio, Bush or Kasich. So, will resistance grow as the prospect of Trump actually winning becomes a possible reality? On the Democrat side the issue is far more straight forward since it is clearly a two horse race and Sanders who has performed beyond expectations has yet to come up against the Clinton fire wall - Black Americans. If you look at the polling breakdown Clinton should benefit hugely from this section of society as the campaign trail turns south and down to South Carolina via a Nevada caucus for the next primary encounter. However, two issues that must be worrying the Clinton camp, firstly, in large part women are not voting for her because they do like or trust her, plus Sanders support has benefited from a growing number of young people who are attracted by his anti establishment agenda. Here lies the key.
Although Trump and Sanders represent the opposite and opposing ends of the American political spectrum their commonality is that they are both seen by many voters as 'outsiders' - Two 'real Americans' who do not represent the vested interests that Congress stands for.(Trump is not a professional politician and although Sanders is he is an independent candidate). Moreover, the anger that many feel towards the political elite because of their inability or unwillingness to change anything is difficult to counter. Hence, the challenge for opponents of Trump is how to deal seriously with a man they thought was just a circus clown. Moreover, as Clinton heads South her team must wish that Hilary possessed a little of the 'Bill effect' that he once had on women and that Black America does come to her rescue otherwise just as in 2008 her long held dream will no longer be her reality.
More next week,
KK
If you have no real idea what 'regaining the initiative', 'confirming his credentials', 'damage limitation and priced into the market' actually mean within the context of the US primaries do not worry your in good company but apparently I'm obliged to include these phrases in my introduction since it gives the allusion that I really understand what is going on and since virtually every media report in the US has already done so. However, I'm writing this introduction just before the vote is declared in the Granite State so just maybe all will become clear when I scribe the second part of this blog later today...
...The results are in and for once they reflect the predictions as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders win big. What does this mean? For the establishment within the two respective parties these are concerning results. Does this suggest that Trump will eventually arrive at the Republican Convention in the early summer with the necessary delegates to win the the nomination? Surely not! But his clear victory has placed serious doubts about the conventional view that someone like Rubio will claim the day, especially after the mauling he took from Christie, Bush and co in the latest TV debate. For Clinton the size of her loss is indeed unsettling since the last time she stood in a New Hampshire primary in 2008 she beat one Barack Obama. However, this is still early days in a process that will run through into July.
Moreover, in the Republican struggle the fight back can still come effectively from one of four opponents - Cruz, Rubio, Bush or Kasich. So, will resistance grow as the prospect of Trump actually winning becomes a possible reality? On the Democrat side the issue is far more straight forward since it is clearly a two horse race and Sanders who has performed beyond expectations has yet to come up against the Clinton fire wall - Black Americans. If you look at the polling breakdown Clinton should benefit hugely from this section of society as the campaign trail turns south and down to South Carolina via a Nevada caucus for the next primary encounter. However, two issues that must be worrying the Clinton camp, firstly, in large part women are not voting for her because they do like or trust her, plus Sanders support has benefited from a growing number of young people who are attracted by his anti establishment agenda. Here lies the key.
Although Trump and Sanders represent the opposite and opposing ends of the American political spectrum their commonality is that they are both seen by many voters as 'outsiders' - Two 'real Americans' who do not represent the vested interests that Congress stands for.(Trump is not a professional politician and although Sanders is he is an independent candidate). Moreover, the anger that many feel towards the political elite because of their inability or unwillingness to change anything is difficult to counter. Hence, the challenge for opponents of Trump is how to deal seriously with a man they thought was just a circus clown. Moreover, as Clinton heads South her team must wish that Hilary possessed a little of the 'Bill effect' that he once had on women and that Black America does come to her rescue otherwise just as in 2008 her long held dream will no longer be her reality.
More next week,
KK
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