Legacies and Lame Ducks
If you are ever daft or driven enough to consider running for the US presidency one thing is surely true you will possess an ego that demands that you leave a footprint in the US political sandpit that is difficult to erase. In other words, this office will allow you the opportunity to make an impression on domestic and/or international society that has your name on it. The historic examples are numerous; Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln et al cover the 1800s while the 'American Century' was filled by T Roosevelt, Wilson, the Alphabet presidents of FDR , JFK , and LBJ, followed by Nixon, Reagan and G. W. Bush. So, where does the present incumbent sit in this pantheon of power? Moreover, how will he leave his own personal political footprint, or is that aim no longer achievable thanks largely to a lack of political space, poor timing and weak professional judgement?
Obama for some is the personification of a changing US society - positive and negative - and therefore, his legacy was confirmed on the very day he was first sworn in to become the first black American President. However, this emblematic acknowledgement is not what the President had in mind when he first started to tackle the primary issues of the day. Domestically, he was going to change the relationship between Wall Street and Main Street allowing for a fairer and more regulated union, he was going to put America back to work after the debacle of the 2008 financial crash, and completely revamp the US healthcare system allowing the 45 million American citizens without any cover to be protected. Internationally, the aims were also high but clear, produce a winning formula for the Afghanistan conflict, end US involvement in Iraq, produce meaningful talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis and develop a firmer and fuller relationship with China. So, how is his success rate so far?
The Wall Street initiative never really gained any real traction because of two principle reasons, Obama spent far too long on the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan when he was first admitted to the Oval Office, in other words, the time for fundamental change in the financial world had been missed and the impetus lost, moreover, some have subsequently observed that Obama's heart was not really in this topic since his political career had been largely funded by Wall Street - biting the hand that feeds you comes to mind. Putting the US back to work has been a little more successful, however, the official unemployment rate is sticking around 7.6% while the real figure is more like 14% when taking into account the 'invisible' unemployed. It seems that the US is at least three years away from returning to 2007 employment rates.
Now, 'Obama Care', this was going to be the President's flagship policy - a restructuring of a US healthcare system that had never ever been undertaken and achieved before. The original proposals were ambitious so, unsurprisingly, they were slowly and effectively watered down by a private health care lobby that fund many US Senators and Congressmen, but a bill was still finally agreed and passed through Congress - an amazing success. However, the devil is always in the detail and Obama's lofty managerial style did not allow him to get involved in the finer details of how such a complex plan was going to be rolled out. The result was a political disaster as the computer system that was going to transform medical protection nationwide crashed, the software may now be out of 'accident and emergency' but it is still recovering and the latest prognosis is it will not be back to full working order for about a year.
Internationally Obama has had just as tough a time. Firstly, he is no natural diplomat or negotiator, but more importantly, he lacks those 'foreign affairs instincts' and therefore, has lent heavily on his Secretary(s) of State and his Vice President. Clinton was capable and cautious since she was playing with a relatively poor hand, Joe Biden has been a useful spokesperson but a little too combative while the jury is still out on Kerry who seems a little too keen in announcing successes before the real game has even started. Hence, US withdrawal from Iraq has left a space that has all the qualities of a failed state. Afghanistan will be left as a social, economic and political 'basket case' regardless of what the Pentagon, London and Brussels suggest and the Israeli/Palestinian rapprochement still remains a political mirage; one of those stories from the 'Arabian Nights'. This leaves China and Iran. Well, the relationship between Beijing and Washington remains at best strained; the recent dispute over a Chinese air defensive zone has just highlighted how little real trust exists between the two super powers. Finally, is there a ray of hope for Obama through the most unlikely of places Tehran?
Iran, that 'axis of evil' maybe the US President's source of salvation since it seems on the face of it that the US and Iran have rediscovered a way of talking to themselves that could not only diminish the 'nuclear threat' posed by this populous Shia nation but help unlock the riddle that continues underwrite the sectional conflicts in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The political potential is huge. But before we all get carried away let us not underrate the power of certain individuals and vested interests that do not want a peaceful resolution to these differences but instead wish to demonstrate the power of their ego's and their own particular legacies.
Obama for some is the personification of a changing US society - positive and negative - and therefore, his legacy was confirmed on the very day he was first sworn in to become the first black American President. However, this emblematic acknowledgement is not what the President had in mind when he first started to tackle the primary issues of the day. Domestically, he was going to change the relationship between Wall Street and Main Street allowing for a fairer and more regulated union, he was going to put America back to work after the debacle of the 2008 financial crash, and completely revamp the US healthcare system allowing the 45 million American citizens without any cover to be protected. Internationally, the aims were also high but clear, produce a winning formula for the Afghanistan conflict, end US involvement in Iraq, produce meaningful talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis and develop a firmer and fuller relationship with China. So, how is his success rate so far?
The Wall Street initiative never really gained any real traction because of two principle reasons, Obama spent far too long on the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan when he was first admitted to the Oval Office, in other words, the time for fundamental change in the financial world had been missed and the impetus lost, moreover, some have subsequently observed that Obama's heart was not really in this topic since his political career had been largely funded by Wall Street - biting the hand that feeds you comes to mind. Putting the US back to work has been a little more successful, however, the official unemployment rate is sticking around 7.6% while the real figure is more like 14% when taking into account the 'invisible' unemployed. It seems that the US is at least three years away from returning to 2007 employment rates.
Now, 'Obama Care', this was going to be the President's flagship policy - a restructuring of a US healthcare system that had never ever been undertaken and achieved before. The original proposals were ambitious so, unsurprisingly, they were slowly and effectively watered down by a private health care lobby that fund many US Senators and Congressmen, but a bill was still finally agreed and passed through Congress - an amazing success. However, the devil is always in the detail and Obama's lofty managerial style did not allow him to get involved in the finer details of how such a complex plan was going to be rolled out. The result was a political disaster as the computer system that was going to transform medical protection nationwide crashed, the software may now be out of 'accident and emergency' but it is still recovering and the latest prognosis is it will not be back to full working order for about a year.
Internationally Obama has had just as tough a time. Firstly, he is no natural diplomat or negotiator, but more importantly, he lacks those 'foreign affairs instincts' and therefore, has lent heavily on his Secretary(s) of State and his Vice President. Clinton was capable and cautious since she was playing with a relatively poor hand, Joe Biden has been a useful spokesperson but a little too combative while the jury is still out on Kerry who seems a little too keen in announcing successes before the real game has even started. Hence, US withdrawal from Iraq has left a space that has all the qualities of a failed state. Afghanistan will be left as a social, economic and political 'basket case' regardless of what the Pentagon, London and Brussels suggest and the Israeli/Palestinian rapprochement still remains a political mirage; one of those stories from the 'Arabian Nights'. This leaves China and Iran. Well, the relationship between Beijing and Washington remains at best strained; the recent dispute over a Chinese air defensive zone has just highlighted how little real trust exists between the two super powers. Finally, is there a ray of hope for Obama through the most unlikely of places Tehran?
Iran, that 'axis of evil' maybe the US President's source of salvation since it seems on the face of it that the US and Iran have rediscovered a way of talking to themselves that could not only diminish the 'nuclear threat' posed by this populous Shia nation but help unlock the riddle that continues underwrite the sectional conflicts in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The political potential is huge. But before we all get carried away let us not underrate the power of certain individuals and vested interests that do not want a peaceful resolution to these differences but instead wish to demonstrate the power of their ego's and their own particular legacies.
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