As the US Presidential election results State by State rolled in on Tuesday night the eyes of a large number of students that I was in the company of were focused on the bar size TV screens, as their faces gradually turned from one of assumed expectation, to growing tension, shock and then total disbelief, Donald ducked under the polls and stole the presidential prize. Yet why were these students let alone most of the World really surprised that a man such as Donald Trump should gain access to the Oval Office? After all one of the cliché driven notions of the United States is that ANYONE can become President, as Trump's success surely proved!
As someone who had already suggested caution over an assumed Clinton victory in my lectures and discussions leading up to this election even I decided to sit back for a couple of days after 'Trump's Triumph' before reaching for my keyboard as the reasons and ramifications of this amazing result needed careful and cool consideration. So, firstly, why did a man best known for his real estate and reality show antics, his 'locker room' talk, his distant relationship with the truth, who was treated as a political and cultural joke by most of the American media become 'leader of the free world'?
The answer is relatively simple although a complex of societal components including inequality, ignorance and inhumanity are involved. But lets start with 'the economy stupid'. Since the late 1980's as dear old 'Ronnie Reagan' receded into the dispiriting and disabling disease that is Alzheimer's so did the American economy. Since then the working classes in the US have seen no real term increase in their wage earning. Moreover, during this 25 year period many have seen at best continuing reductions in living standards and at worst long term unemployment, an increasing use of food banks, and ultimately homelessness. As the 'rulers of the universe' watched their salaries sky-rocket from their Wall Street 'launch' pads many in Main Street felt the increasing economic pain of a financial system that recognised few laws of fairness and equity and a globalized market place where the strongest just got stronger as the weaker just got weaker. The politicians from both main parties funded by Wall Street and Big Oil largely paid lip service to this damaging societal dynamic that allowed a 'free movement' of goods, services and money that failed to recognise national boundaries or borders let alone the traditional industries of steel and coal that had harnessed the Rust Belt States of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin for generations. All these states would be won by Trump.
These economic stresses that brought about deepening societal cracks weren't really acknowledged until it was too late as ironically, the very banks and financial institutions that had helped create this condition crashed. Since the subsequent 2008 economic meltdown was just the precursor to a continuing erosion of traditional working class employment and deployment; skilled and semi skilled industrial jobs, and manual labour disappeared or dispersed as this part of the US felt the triple whammy of increased automation via robotics, computer advancement and increased competition from overseas. In other words, the adoption of neo-liberal free trade economics in the 1980's and the subsequent arrival of the third industrial revolution during the last ten years had helped develop the growing iniquities of a hollowed out society as the inflated egos of over paid executives flew in their private jets over large areas of low paid, few benefits, insecure work America.
The black vote held up for Obama during the next eight years due to the tribal nature of the political and racial divide in the US hence with the exception of the Tea Party there was little real opportunity for the largely white working classes to revolt at their treatment that came seemingly from a disconnected 'uncaring established elite' that sat in Washington and Wall Street - For many Hilary was already seen as a fully paid up member of this particular tribe. Then arrived a self financed alternative, who spoke in way that the working classes recognised. This man spoke to the disaffected under the banner of the Republican Party but he was/is no traditional established Republican. He believes in government intervention at most levels of society.
His audience felt and saw themselves as victims of a unfair system propped up by the insidious influences of globalization, free market liberal economics and rank awful governance and they had a point. But Trump not only agreed with their sentiments he identified and articulated who the perpetrators of these crimes were - poor free trade deals, unfair overseas competition and illegal immigration, in other words, outsiders, non Americans, the protected elite.The irony here is startling since Trump is himself an outsider and a multi billionaire but his description of the 'enemy' was anti establishment, racial and fiercely nationalistic. The return of protectionism had come as Trump extolled the virtues of 'Making America Great Again'. Although Clinton's softer, reasoned and more experienced approach appealed to the the die-hard Democrat States of East and West coast life this approach sounded too much of the same and less about radical change, it sounded as it was to protect the lives of the well heeled and acceptable middle classes. But in the key swing states numbering about ten where all elections are normally decided Clinton was increasingly seen as part of the problem not part of the solution.
Why didn't the black and Latino community vote for Clinton? Why didn't more women vote for Clinton? Why didn't many of the young supporters of Bernie Saunders vote for Clinton? Many did, but too many either stayed at home, voted independent or in desperation, Trump. Why? Because Clinton the technocrat, was also seen as a flawed candidate that could not be trusted especially as her policies suggested little real change from the continuing economic status quo. No wonder the working classes and younger voters said no, moreover many black Americans who witnessed zero improvement in their own lives during Obama's reign also turned their backs. Whilst many 'mature' women in the US did not find Trump's misogynistic crudities as off putting as some of the more 'sensitive younger sisters'.
Finally, because of the electoral college system in the US Trump's team understood better than most the notion of marginal gain. In other words, they understood that in the key states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania etc all they needed was to collect a extra but relatively small number of Latino, black, women and young people votes and the balance of power would move. Meanwhile Hilary and her Beltway buddies forgot that she just could not rely on the Latino or Black vote for she had to work just as hard for their support. These small differences and deficiencies in strategy that polls assiduously ignored could bring seismic changes to the domestic America as well as international relations. The United States approach to immigration and free trade will now be under the spotlight as well as abortion and the Affordable Health Care Bill. For Europe NATO and who pays for it will be heavily scrutinised but far outweighing all these issues is the desire by Trump to tear up the Paris climate change accord. This single act of lunacy will spell disaster for the long term viability of our race...
More later on the effects that a Trump Presidency might bring to the rest of the World.
Kindest
KK
As someone who had already suggested caution over an assumed Clinton victory in my lectures and discussions leading up to this election even I decided to sit back for a couple of days after 'Trump's Triumph' before reaching for my keyboard as the reasons and ramifications of this amazing result needed careful and cool consideration. So, firstly, why did a man best known for his real estate and reality show antics, his 'locker room' talk, his distant relationship with the truth, who was treated as a political and cultural joke by most of the American media become 'leader of the free world'?
The answer is relatively simple although a complex of societal components including inequality, ignorance and inhumanity are involved. But lets start with 'the economy stupid'. Since the late 1980's as dear old 'Ronnie Reagan' receded into the dispiriting and disabling disease that is Alzheimer's so did the American economy. Since then the working classes in the US have seen no real term increase in their wage earning. Moreover, during this 25 year period many have seen at best continuing reductions in living standards and at worst long term unemployment, an increasing use of food banks, and ultimately homelessness. As the 'rulers of the universe' watched their salaries sky-rocket from their Wall Street 'launch' pads many in Main Street felt the increasing economic pain of a financial system that recognised few laws of fairness and equity and a globalized market place where the strongest just got stronger as the weaker just got weaker. The politicians from both main parties funded by Wall Street and Big Oil largely paid lip service to this damaging societal dynamic that allowed a 'free movement' of goods, services and money that failed to recognise national boundaries or borders let alone the traditional industries of steel and coal that had harnessed the Rust Belt States of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin for generations. All these states would be won by Trump.
These economic stresses that brought about deepening societal cracks weren't really acknowledged until it was too late as ironically, the very banks and financial institutions that had helped create this condition crashed. Since the subsequent 2008 economic meltdown was just the precursor to a continuing erosion of traditional working class employment and deployment; skilled and semi skilled industrial jobs, and manual labour disappeared or dispersed as this part of the US felt the triple whammy of increased automation via robotics, computer advancement and increased competition from overseas. In other words, the adoption of neo-liberal free trade economics in the 1980's and the subsequent arrival of the third industrial revolution during the last ten years had helped develop the growing iniquities of a hollowed out society as the inflated egos of over paid executives flew in their private jets over large areas of low paid, few benefits, insecure work America.
The black vote held up for Obama during the next eight years due to the tribal nature of the political and racial divide in the US hence with the exception of the Tea Party there was little real opportunity for the largely white working classes to revolt at their treatment that came seemingly from a disconnected 'uncaring established elite' that sat in Washington and Wall Street - For many Hilary was already seen as a fully paid up member of this particular tribe. Then arrived a self financed alternative, who spoke in way that the working classes recognised. This man spoke to the disaffected under the banner of the Republican Party but he was/is no traditional established Republican. He believes in government intervention at most levels of society.
His audience felt and saw themselves as victims of a unfair system propped up by the insidious influences of globalization, free market liberal economics and rank awful governance and they had a point. But Trump not only agreed with their sentiments he identified and articulated who the perpetrators of these crimes were - poor free trade deals, unfair overseas competition and illegal immigration, in other words, outsiders, non Americans, the protected elite.The irony here is startling since Trump is himself an outsider and a multi billionaire but his description of the 'enemy' was anti establishment, racial and fiercely nationalistic. The return of protectionism had come as Trump extolled the virtues of 'Making America Great Again'. Although Clinton's softer, reasoned and more experienced approach appealed to the the die-hard Democrat States of East and West coast life this approach sounded too much of the same and less about radical change, it sounded as it was to protect the lives of the well heeled and acceptable middle classes. But in the key swing states numbering about ten where all elections are normally decided Clinton was increasingly seen as part of the problem not part of the solution.
Why didn't the black and Latino community vote for Clinton? Why didn't more women vote for Clinton? Why didn't many of the young supporters of Bernie Saunders vote for Clinton? Many did, but too many either stayed at home, voted independent or in desperation, Trump. Why? Because Clinton the technocrat, was also seen as a flawed candidate that could not be trusted especially as her policies suggested little real change from the continuing economic status quo. No wonder the working classes and younger voters said no, moreover many black Americans who witnessed zero improvement in their own lives during Obama's reign also turned their backs. Whilst many 'mature' women in the US did not find Trump's misogynistic crudities as off putting as some of the more 'sensitive younger sisters'.
Finally, because of the electoral college system in the US Trump's team understood better than most the notion of marginal gain. In other words, they understood that in the key states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania etc all they needed was to collect a extra but relatively small number of Latino, black, women and young people votes and the balance of power would move. Meanwhile Hilary and her Beltway buddies forgot that she just could not rely on the Latino or Black vote for she had to work just as hard for their support. These small differences and deficiencies in strategy that polls assiduously ignored could bring seismic changes to the domestic America as well as international relations. The United States approach to immigration and free trade will now be under the spotlight as well as abortion and the Affordable Health Care Bill. For Europe NATO and who pays for it will be heavily scrutinised but far outweighing all these issues is the desire by Trump to tear up the Paris climate change accord. This single act of lunacy will spell disaster for the long term viability of our race...
More later on the effects that a Trump Presidency might bring to the rest of the World.
Kindest
KK