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Overseas Intervention

25/11/2013

2 Comments

 

Iran, Israel and History...

As I'm sure you are all now aware thanks to the triumphal trumpeting of Secretary of State Kerry and Foreign Secretary Hague a deal has been finally done to curb the nuclear ambitions of Iran. After months of negotiation most of which has been held in secret away from the media platform of Geneva, the US has apparently managed to convince Iran to stop continuing down the path of developing nuclear weapons - if they were in the first place - and in recompense some of the financial sanctions that brought Iran to this particular table in the first place have been relaxed. On the face of it this is a 'historic deal' as described in that self congratulating manner that the state department and the foreign office do so well. But one moment, as this high level diplomacy is often devised and derived via a combination of smoke and mirrors, are we being offered the real picture here? Why would the US now apparently trust an 'axis of evil' to keep to their word? Has the great threat to the US and us just disappeared into the desert? Moreover, was the nuclear proliferation risk proffered by the US as critical as it was once described?

Meanwhile, in Israel the Prime Minister is incandescent as he sees this development as a 'historic mistake' making war in the region more likely not less so. Consequently, Netanyahu is sending a team led by the Israeli national security adviser, to Washington to work with state department officials on the 'final details' of the deal. This was agreed after Barack rang Benyamin and invited Israel to contribute to the 'on going' negotiations.  So, the deal just agreed as 'historic' whether it be a triumph or a mistake is actually not a deal at all but an interim agreement to allow the final deal to be considered - I hope you are following this. In other words, the Geneva 'victory parade' was just a dress rehearsal for an event that might or might not happen. Who said today's media just offers us another reality program called 'diplomacy' that is just an updated version of charades?

Having been busy describing 'history in the making' I failed to mention the other main objectors to this deal or non deal are the US Congress and the Saudi's. But do not worry we will be hearing quite a lot from Congress over the next week or two since they not only tend to be very pro Israel but with 'Netanyahu's team' in town expect much grand standing, growling and Barack baiting. However, the Saudi's are a very different' kettle of fish' for they offer their form of diplomacy quietly and often secretly but as some have observed, far more effectively than the headline grabbing circus that maintains it pitch in Washington. The input that Riyadh will offer will be hard nosed and powered toughly, Obama's advisers will be listening more intently to this conversation than to the 'historic message' once again being offered from Tel Aviv.                
 
2 Comments
Jens Vermeulen
26/11/2013 11:43:01 pm

I don’t really get the reaction of Israel. Why are they not happy with this interim agreement? I get that the unsure status of the deal worries Israel, but in the end, a non-nuclear Iran would only enhance the power of Israel in the Middle East. If Iran refrains from making a nuclear weapon, Israel is the sole nuclear power in the region. Last year, I had a couple of classes from professor Tom Sauer. He is, amongst other things, a nuclear weapons specialists and has appeared in the Belgian media a couple of times in the past week. He believes that, if Iran complies with the agreement, they will not be able to create a nuclear bomb. Furthermore, there is also a school of thought that states that a nuclear Iran would help to stabilize the region. Explaining why this would be the case takes too long, but these arguments are probably unlikely to change Israel’s mind anyway.

In the meantime, it’s just a trust-issue. Let us just see where it goes and not be overly pessimistic or optimistic. The bad case scenario is that Iran crawls back and resumes its old program. This would lead to the reinstatement of economic sanctions and a return to the way it used to be before. The other scenario is that Iran stays true to its promises, and in that case, we might actually be witnessing a little piece of ‘history in the making’. Only time will tell.

Reply
Galine
27/11/2013 05:26:46 am

I agree on the trust-issue, Jens and I think that's why Israel is reacting like this. It's just another country(possibly) bending to the authority of almighty America. Who actually made use of the nuclear weapons here?

Reply



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    Dr J Ken Kennard Professor of Politics and History - Master Program in American Studies - Universiteit Gent

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